愛華網(wǎng)| Economicturmoil 經(jīng)濟動蕩 Over to you,George 喬治，全靠你了 The central-bank governor sends a message to thechancellor 這是央行行長要對英國財政大臣說的話 Feb 18th 2012 | from theprint edition IT HAS been a turbulent week for Britain’s economy. On Monday, abad start: Moody’s, a credit- rating agency, threatened to strip the government of its cherishedAAA status. New data on Tuesday repaired some of the damage, showing that consumer-priceinflation was finally falling, to 3.6% in January from 4.2% in December, and over 5% before that.Then Wednesday’s news was glum again: unemployment rose to 8.4% in the three months toDecember, the highest rate for over 15 years. To cap it all, the Bank of England published itsquarterly Inflation Report, setting  out where it thinks the economy is heading, whatthe bank will do about it and what it won’t. 對英國經(jīng)濟來說，這是不平靜的一周。壞的消息從周一開始：評級機構穆迪威脅說要下調英國政府信用的3A評級。 周二發(fā)布的新數(shù)據(jù)就感覺好多了：一月份的消費品價格增長從去年12月份的4.2%下降至3.6%，這一數(shù)據(jù)曾經(jīng)高 達5%。周三的消息又讓大家多云轉陰：失業(yè)率到去年12月份底連續(xù)上升，升至了15年來最高的8.4%。從英格蘭 銀行新公布的季度通漲報告就能看出：英國經(jīng)濟將何去何從，還有什么招數(shù)、亦或根本無計可施。 Of the barrage of numbers released this week, unemployment will bethe one that concerns most people. It will worry the chancellor of theexchequer, George Osborne, especially, as joblessness wrecks both household and government finances. The best antidote isgrowth, but prospects are poor. Sir Mervyn King (pictured above), governor of the centralbank, says the economy is likely to zigzag in and out of positive territory until the end of theyear. 本周公布的這一系列數(shù)字中，失業(yè)率是人們最關注的數(shù)字。這也是財政大臣喬治.奧斯本擔心的數(shù)字，高居不下的失 業(yè)率不僅使家庭蒙受損失還讓政府經(jīng)濟遭受打擊。最好的解藥就是經(jīng)濟能恢復增長，但前景并不樂觀。英國央行行 長默文.金爵士（上方照片）說，經(jīng)濟在年底出現(xiàn)轉機前還會不停波動。 Threats to future growth include some things the bank cannot orwill not help with. Extreme euro- area distress would be the most damaging, but it is outside thebank’s ability to quantify, let alone control. Nor does the threatened rating downgrade require anyresponse from the bank, though it is a reminder, on Sir Mervyn’s reading, that MrOsborne has no choice but to stick to his deficit- reduction plan. 未來經(jīng)濟增長的阻礙還包括一些銀行業(yè)無能為力的因素，或幫不上忙的因素。深陷困境的歐元區(qū)是最大的阻礙, 但這已超過了英國央行的能力范圍，讓他們自行解決吧。 連對下調政府信用評級這樣地威脅英國央行也只是置若罔 聞，默文.金爵士對此的解讀是，現(xiàn)在奧斯本財長的重心都放在減少財政赤字上了。 Some threats do demand action, however. Small businesses, whichusually create lots of jobs, are being starved of loans. And productivity growth has been poor,particularly in the services sector, which accounts for three-quarters of economic output. Galvanisinglending will require targeted bank -funding guarantees. Enhancing productivity will involve structuralreform. Both are jobs for electedofficials ratherthan the central bank, says Sir Mervyn. For him, monetary policyhas its limits and has played its part. The bank’s taskis stabilising prices; if Mr Osborne wants growth, it is his turn to move. 但是，對另一些威脅還是要著手處理的，如，能創(chuàng)造大量就業(yè)機會的小微企業(yè)正面臨著貸款難的問題；生產(chǎn)量增長 乏力的問題，特別是占到經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出總量四分之三的服務行業(yè)。要鼓勵借貸就需要為目標融資銀行提供擔保；而要提 高生產(chǎn)力就需要產(chǎn)業(yè)結構改革。 默文.金爵士說，這兩項工作都該歸現(xiàn)任政府而非英國央行負責。對他而言，目前 的貨幣政策有它的局限性和它自身應扮演的角色。央行的職責就是穩(wěn)定物價；提高生產(chǎn)力是奧斯本先生的職責。 In some ways the Bank of England would like to get back to theearly days of its independence, granted in 1997. For nearly ten years inflation was at or close toits 2% target. But since March 2007 prices have been much more unruly, forcing the governor toapologise publicly time after time for letting the consumer-price index overshootthe mark. Now, at last, things are looking better: inflation should continue to drop as falls in wholesale energyprices flow through to lowerutilitybills. The bank expects inflation to be back on targetwithin three years, perhaps dipping below it before then (see chart). 在某些方面，英格蘭銀行真希望能回到1997年剛獨立門戶時的早期歲月，從那時起的十年時間，通貨膨漲都維持在 2％的目標范圍內。但自從2007年3月以來，物價開始飛漲，迫于壓力，政府不得不因為高的離譜的消費價格指數(shù)不 斷的向公眾致歉。現(xiàn)在，事情在向好的方向發(fā)展：隨著能源價格的回落，家庭水、電賬單也會持續(xù)下降。央行期望 通漲能在3年內恢復到目標范圍，甚至比以往更低。 http://media.economist.com/sites ...20120218_BRC594.gif These forecasts are important for investors. Since March 2009 thebank has used asset purchases (quantitative easing, or QE) tofine-tune the amount of money in the economy, which can pumpup bond and equity prices. Now, with inflation expected to be broadlyon target before long, it is unlikely to announce a further round of QE sales or purchases inthe near future. 這些預期對投資者來說相當重要。從2009年3月以來銀行通過資產(chǎn)運作來微調投放市場的貨幣量，從而抬高了債券 和股票的價格（即量化寬松政策）?，F(xiàn)在，距離預期的目標低通漲率還很遠，未來不會有新一輪的量化寬松政策出 臺。 The message for households is clear too. Lower inflation means thatinterest rates are unlikely to rise any time soon, keeping mortgage costs down. And real householdincome should improve. Tax changes will also help, with an increaseinpersonalallowancesin the March budget worthabout £1.1 billion ($1.7 billion). All this will be welcome relieffor people hit in 2011 by what Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs calls a“perfect storm” of low wage growth, high inflation and taxincreases. If, that is, they still have jobs. 這些信息對每個家庭就很明確了：低通漲意味著銀行利率在短期內不會再上漲，按揭貸款隨之降低，家庭的實際收 入就增加了。稅制改革也助了一臂之力：提高的個人所得稅免稅額，就占到了3月份的財政預算的11億英鎊（17億美金）。所有這些舉措，對那些經(jīng)歷了2011的低工資增長、高通漲、高稅收的被高盛公司的凱文.達利稱為“完美風 暴”的人們，終于可以松口氣了 。 from the print edition | Britain 譯者注： Personalallowances:計算所得稅時的個人免稅額 utility bill:物業(yè)帳單, 這里面包括水、電、煤氣等公共設施的使用費 |
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