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咖啡杯水仙 發(fā)表于: 2009-7-04 16:28 來(lái)源:燕談博客
[i=s] 本帖最后由 咖啡杯水仙 于 2009-7-4 16:34 編輯
Global Money Supply and the Value of Gold
by Dollardaze aka Mike Hewitt with Krassimir Petrov, PhD.| January 26, 2009
全球貨幣供應(yīng)與黃金價(jià)值
Dollardaze aka Mike Hewitt與Krassimir Petrov博士 2009年1月26日
Introduction
序言
In this essay we attempt to estimate global money supply and relate it to global supply of gold. For the global money supply, we use money supply figures for currency in circulation from 86 selected currencies, from 81 independent countries and five monetary unions. For the global supply of gold, we use data from theWorld Gold Council(WGC). Finally, we attempt to interpret the price of gold as a relationship between global money supply and global gold supply.
在本文中，我們?cè)噲D通過厘清全球貨幣供應(yīng)情況并將其對(duì)應(yīng)于黃金供應(yīng)。在全球貨幣供應(yīng)方面，我們的貨幣供應(yīng)模型選取了86種主要貨幣的流通量，它們分別來(lái)自81個(gè)獨(dú)立的主權(quán)國(guó)家和5個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟。在全球黃金供應(yīng)情況上，我們使用了世界黃金協(xié)會(huì)(World Gold Council，WGC)的數(shù)據(jù)。最終，我們?cè)噲D解釋金價(jià)的生成與全球貨幣及黃金供應(yīng)的關(guān)系。
Data Description
數(shù)據(jù)描述
For money supply, we consider five monetary unions and 81 sovereign (independent) currencies. Here is a quick survey of those unions. The first monetary union is the European Monetary Union (EMU), commonly known as the Eurozone, and using the Euro as a common currency. It includes 16 Western European countries, such as Germany, France, Belgium, and Austria. The second currency union is the East Caribbean Currency Union, which uses the East Caribbean Dollar, and includes members like Antigua and Barbuda. The third union is the West African Monetary Union (UEOMA), using the West African Franc, and includes members like Benin and Burkina Faso. The fourth union is the Central African Monetary Union, technically known as CEMAC, which uses the central African Franc, and includes members like Cameroon, Chad, and Congo. The fifth union is technically known as the IEOM, uses the French Pacific Franc, and includes members like French Polynesia and New Caledonia.
在貨幣供應(yīng)上，我們對(duì)5個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟和81個(gè)主權(quán)國(guó)家進(jìn)行了觀察。這些貨幣聯(lián)盟主要有，一、歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟（European Monetary Union，EMU），亦被廣泛地稱作歐元區(qū)，使用歐元為主要通貨。歐元區(qū)包括16個(gè)西歐國(guó)家，例如德國(guó)、法國(guó)、比利時(shí)和奧地利等。二、東加勒比海貨幣聯(lián)盟（East Caribbean Currency Union ECCU），在該地區(qū)，人們使用東加勒比海元，這一聯(lián)盟包括了安提瓜和巴布達(dá)。三、西非貨幣聯(lián)盟（West African Monetary Union，UEOMA)，使用西非法郎，其成員有貝寧和布基納法索等。四、中非貨幣聯(lián)盟（Central African Monetary Union，CEMAC），被縮寫成CEMAC，使用中非法郎，該盟包括喀麥隆、乍得和剛果等國(guó)。五、這一貨幣聯(lián)盟被稱作IEOM，使用法屬太平洋法郎，成員包括法屬波利尼西亞群島和新喀里多尼亞（位于東經(jīng)165度，南緯21.5度。1853年以來(lái)一直為法國(guó)海外領(lǐng)地。）
最新回復(fù)
咖啡杯水仙 at 2009-7-04 16:29:31
Table 1 below,Currency Unions, provides the details for each currency union, such as its popular and technical name, its currency name, currency code, and member countries.
（下表一：貨幣聯(lián)盟，提供了每個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟的具體細(xì)節(jié)，如普遍稱謂和專業(yè)稱謂，通貨名稱、代碼及成員國(guó)）
Table 1. Currency Unions
Monetary Union
Currency Name
Code
Countries
Eurozone
歐洲區(qū)
Euro
歐元
EUR
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain
East Caribbean Currency Union
東加勒比海貨幣聯(lián)盟
East Caribbean Dollar
東加勒比海元
XCD
Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent & the Grenadines.
UEMOA (Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine, or “West African Economic and Monetary Union”)
西非經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣聯(lián)盟
CFA franc BCEAO (West African Franc)
西非法郎
XOF
Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo
CEMAC (Communauté Économique et Monétaire de l'Afrique Centrale, or “Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa”)
中非經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣合作組織
CFA franc BEAC (Central African Franc)
中非法郎
XAF
Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon
IEOM (Institut d'Émission d'Outre-Mer, or “Overseas Issuing Institute”)
大洋發(fā)行協(xié)會(huì)
CFP franc (French Pacific Franc)
法屬太平洋法律
XPF
French Polynesia, New Caledonia, and Wallis & Futuna
The five currency unions and 81 independent currencies cover a total of 122 countries that make up98.4% of the world's GDPand86.1% of the world's population. Figure 1 below visualizes the coverage. Areas with grey color on the map represent countries without available data. Areas with blue, red, and orange color represent the three most important economic unions, respectively the European, the West African, and the Central African Unions.
文中所述及的五個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟和81個(gè)獨(dú)立國(guó)家涵蓋了全球122個(gè)國(guó)家，占全球GDP的98.4%，和總?cè)丝诘?6.1%。圖1標(biāo)明了本次分析的涵蓋面。地圖上的灰色區(qū)域?yàn)槲幢桓采w的國(guó)家。藍(lán)色、紅色和橙色區(qū)域?yàn)槿齻€(gè)最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟，分別對(duì)應(yīng)歐洲、西非和中非聯(lián)盟。
咖啡杯水仙 at 2009-7-04 16:30:07
Figure 1. Countries Included in the Analysis.
圖1：本次分析所涵蓋的國(guó)家
Reliable money supply data could not be found for all countries. The five largest economies for which data was unavailable were: Morocco, Vietnam, Angola, Sudan, and Cuba. These countries comprise 0.6% of world GDP and 2.8% of world population. Their relatively insignificant share of the global economy makes us believe that their exclusion from our analysis would not materially affect our results and our conclusions.
并非所有國(guó)家都能夠找到可靠的貨幣供應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)。在這些國(guó)家里，最大的5個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體為：摩洛哥、越南、安哥拉、蘇丹有古巴。這些國(guó)家擁有全世界0.6%的GDP和2.8%的人口。它們對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的無(wú)關(guān)緊要性使我們認(rèn)為，它們的缺失并不會(huì)有形地影響到我們分析的結(jié)果及作出的結(jié)論。
Myanmar (Burma) requires a special note. Cross-country money supply comparisons rank Myanmar very high. This apparent paradox arises from the discrepancy between the overvalued official exchange rate and the more realistic “black market” exchange rate. For the local currency, the 2005 money supply is reported at 1.83 trillion kyat (MMK). The official exchange rate (6.7147 MMK to 1 USD) makes this the fifth most valuable currency in the world with a value of US$273 billion. The unofficial black market exchange rate (1300 MMK to 1 USD) provides a value of only US$1.4 billion. In our opinion, the official rate overvalues the currency roughly 200 times and introduces an obvious bias in the data, so Myanmar money supply was not included.
值得一提的是緬甸。通過跨國(guó)貨幣供應(yīng)比照，該國(guó)的貨幣供應(yīng)量應(yīng)該是非常高的。這一顯著的矛盾體現(xiàn)在過高的官價(jià)匯率和“黑市”匯率的巨大差異上。就當(dāng)?shù)刎泿殴?yīng)而言，2005年這一數(shù)字據(jù)報(bào)道是1.83萬(wàn)億緬元（kyat，MMK)。從官價(jià)匯率（6.7147緬元兌1美元）上看，這是世界上第五大值錢的貨幣，其年供應(yīng)量對(duì)應(yīng)的是2730億美元。然而用非官方的黑市匯率（1300緬元兌1美元）來(lái)形容的話，這一供應(yīng)量卻只相當(dāng)于14億美元。就我看來(lái)，緬元的官方匯率高估了整整200倍，并導(dǎo)致了數(shù)據(jù)上的明顯偏離，因此緬元的供應(yīng)量不能包括在本次分析之內(nèi)。
Monetary Aggregates
貨幣流通額
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) provides a link on their website that lists central banks for different countries. The following charts and tables use money supply data from these official websites, whereby each link identifies the economic area
國(guó)際開發(fā)銀行（BIS）在他們的網(wǎng)站上提供了導(dǎo)向不同國(guó)家央行的鏈接。下列圖表所用的數(shù)據(jù)都是來(lái)源于這些官方網(wǎng)站，因此每條鏈接都指向相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)。
Unfortunately, there is no unified methodology for calculating different monetary aggregates. This presents analytical problems as different countries use different definitions of money supply. Different definitions, in turn, require different methodologies for calculating different monetary aggregates, which immensely complicates cross-country comparisons. Unfortunately, we are not aware of any widely accepted solution to this particular problem.
不幸的是，并沒有統(tǒng)一的方法論去計(jì)算不同的貨幣流通額。這就為分析不同國(guó)家使用不同貨幣供應(yīng)定義方式帶來(lái)了麻煩。不同的定義方式，要求使用不同的方法來(lái)計(jì)算不同國(guó)家的貨幣流通額，這就使整個(gè)跨國(guó)貨幣供應(yīng)分析被極大地復(fù)雜化了?？上У氖?，對(duì)這個(gè)特殊的問題，我們現(xiàn)在還沒有廣泛認(rèn)可的解決方法。
Quite commonly, money is conceptually defined across a continuum from narrow money to broad money. Narrow money typically includes highly liquid forms of money that serve the function of medium of exchange, while broad money additionally includes other less liquid forms of money that serve the function of store of value. Monetary aggregates are conventionally denoted in ascending order by M0, M1, M2, M3, etc. Smaller aggregates like M0 and M1 correspond conceptually to narrow money supply, while larger aggregates like M2 and M3 correspond to broad money supply. We should note that in the heady days of monetarism, economists have further elaborated those aggregates and have devised M4, M5, M6, etc.
非常普遍的是，貨幣被概念地定義為一個(gè)從狹義到廣義的封閉集合。狹義貨幣典型地包括了貨幣的高流動(dòng)性形式，服務(wù)于交換功能的中間物，同時(shí)，廣義貨幣則在狹義貨幣的基礎(chǔ)上再添加了其他一些流動(dòng)性不那么強(qiáng)的形式：例如執(zhí)行價(jià)值儲(chǔ)備的功能。貨幣流通額按慣例被表示為逐級(jí)遞升的M0、M1、M2、M3等。小集合如M0和M1等同于狹義貨幣供應(yīng)，而比較大的集合如M2和M3則等同于廣義貨幣供應(yīng)。我們應(yīng)該記住，在貨幣主義者們倍感振奮的日子里，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家把更加廣義的貨幣流通額稱為M4、M5、M6等。
Most generally and most commonly, but not necessarily uniformly, M0 refers to outstanding currency (banknotes and coins) in circulation, but excluding cash reserves. M1 includes M0, demand deposits, and cash reserves. M2 includes M1 and savings deposits, conventionally maturing within two years or redeemable at notice within three months. M3 includes M2, repurchase agreements, money market funds, and debt securities maturing within two years.
從最平常和最普遍而不必要硬要一致的角度而言，M0就是流通中的基本通貨（如支票和硬幣），但排除現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備。M1包含量M0，還有活期存款和現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備。M2包括了M1和儲(chǔ)蓄存款，常常是兩年內(nèi)或三月內(nèi)可即時(shí)贖回的。M3包括了M2，重購(gòu)協(xié)議、貨幣市場(chǎng)基金以及兩年期內(nèi)債務(wù)證券。
Additionally, not every country publishes all four of the common monetary aggregates. For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve ceased publishing M3 on May 23, 2006. However, various independent sources have successfully reconstructed the M3 series and have continued to publish it.
For our analysis, we concentrated exclusively on the narrowest measure of money supply, M0. Conceptually, it corresponds best to the monetary interpretation of gold. We expect it to relate well to the value of gold, although further studies may be necessary to analyze the relationship of gold to higher aggregates, such as M1, M2, and M3.
此外，并非每個(gè)國(guó)家都以這四種定義來(lái)衡量貨幣流通額。例如，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2006年5月23日以后就不再公布M3。然而，各種獨(dú)立信息來(lái)源仍然成功地重組了M3供應(yīng)量的情況，并繼續(xù)公之于眾。
對(duì)于我們的分析來(lái)說，我們僅將視線集中在最狹義的貨幣供應(yīng)——M0上。在概念上，這最符合貨幣供應(yīng)對(duì)黃金價(jià)格的影響。我們希望它能很好地與黃金價(jià)格聯(lián)系，盡管在進(jìn)一步的研究中也許會(huì)通過更高級(jí)的貨幣流通額如M1、M2和M3來(lái)衡量它們對(duì)黃金價(jià)格的影響。
咖啡杯水仙 at 2009-7-04 16:31:02
Global Currency Comparisons
全球貨幣對(duì)比
The following pie charts on Figure 2 below show the relative value of global currencies (M0) when converted to USD for means of comparison.
接下來(lái)的餅形圖（圖2）展示了全球M0以美元價(jià)格為衡量的構(gòu)成情況。
Figure 2. Global Narrow Money Supply
圖2：全球狹義貨幣供應(yīng)
The left-hand side of the figure shows that the four largest currencies in circulation comprise nearly three-quarters of the global narrow money supply. Not surprisingly, those currencies are the Euro, the Dollar, the Yen, and the Yuan. The right-hand side zooms in on the “other” 79 currencies of the left-hand side that were simply too small to see when shown together with the big currencies. We show then next thirteen most important currencies that comprise in value more than half of the “other” category. It is clear from the picture that those thirteen currencies are really small relative to the big currencies. Nevertheless, it illustrates well their relative size in the global money supply.
圖左為四種流通量最大的貨幣，它們占了全球狹義貨幣供應(yīng)量近3/4的比例。毫不奇怪，這些貨幣是歐元、美元、日元和人民幣。圖右是圖左“其他”(others)的放大版，包括了其他79種貨幣的發(fā)行情況。這些貨幣和幾種主要貨幣來(lái)比的話，發(fā)行量太少，以致不能在圖左得到清晰地顯示。我們?cè)趫D右中又列出了其他13種最重要的貨幣，它們又在“其他”中占去了一半多的比例。我們可以清楚地看到，那十三種貨幣和主要貨幣來(lái)講，占有的比例是多么微乎其微。盡管如此，這還是很好地顯示了全球貨幣供應(yīng)中各種貨幣所占的比例。
Next, we consider narrow money supply growth rates. For the whole dataset, the average growth rate of M0 is 8.2%. Table 2 below shows the twelve currencies with the fastest annual growth rates of M0, shown in the middle column highlighted in yellow:
然后我們將貨幣供應(yīng)增量考慮在內(nèi)。對(duì)于整個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)系統(tǒng)而言，M0的平均增長(zhǎng)率是8.2%。表2顯示的是12種年增長(zhǎng)率最快的狹義貨幣（M0），它們的增長(zhǎng)率被放在表格中央縱列內(nèi)，并被涂黃以標(biāo)明。
Table 2: Fastest Growing Currencies in Relative Terms
表2：相對(duì)期限內(nèi)發(fā)行量增長(zhǎng)最快的的貨幣
RANK
排名
COUNTRY
國(guó)家
CURRENCY CODE
貨幣代碼
Y-O-Y INCREASE IN M0年M0增長(zhǎng)率
EXCHANGE RATE
(OCT 31, 2008)
兌美元匯率（2008-10-31）
BILLIONS
單位（十億元）
%
US$ BILLIONS
以美元衡量
（單位：十億）
1
Zimbabwe
津巴布韋
ZWD
> 900,000,000
> 2 x 1016%
0.02
*
2
Azerbaijan
阿塞拜疆
AZN
1.49
69.7%
1.85
1.235330
3
Ukraine
烏克蘭
UAH
47.28
47.8%
7.16
0.151403
4
UAE
阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)
AED
10.67
44.1%
2.90
0.272000
5
Estonia
愛沙尼亞
EEK
12.86
42.3%
1.07
0.083263
6
Indonesia
印度尼西亞
IDR
62,839.00
39.2%
6.31
0.000100
7
Bangladesh
孟加拉國(guó)
BDT
109.66
39.0%
1.59
0.014468
8
Belorussia
白俄羅斯
BYR
1,100.70
35.0%
0.52
0.000473
9
Zambia
贊比亞
ZMK
404.39
33.2%
0.09
0.000211
10
Nigeria
尼日利亞
NGN
171.81
30.1%
1.45
0.008423
11
Venezuela
委內(nèi)瑞拉
VEF
3.56
29.5%
1.66
0.465700
12
Iran
伊朗
IRR
15,874.70
29.3%
1.58
0.000099
*The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe ceased publishing any statistics after June 2008 at which point 1 USD equalled 40.9 billion Zimbabwe dollars.
*津巴布韋儲(chǔ)備銀行在2008年6月后停止宣布貨幣發(fā)行量的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，其時(shí)，1美元可換409億津巴布韋元。
It is clear from the above table that while their growth rates are relatively high, they are also relatively small in absolute terms, and subsequently relatively insignificant.
從上表清晰可見，盡管這些國(guó)家的貨幣增長(zhǎng)率相對(duì)來(lái)講非常地高，但是從絕對(duì)期限上看，它們的貨幣發(fā)行規(guī)模還是相對(duì)較小的，而且也是落后和相對(duì)無(wú)足輕重的。
On the other hand, when converted to US dollars as of Oct 31, 2008, the fastest growing currencies in absolute terms are shown in Table 3 below.
在另一方面，以2008年10月31日匯率兌換成美元來(lái)看，表3顯示了在絕對(duì)期限內(nèi)發(fā)行量增長(zhǎng)最快的貨幣。
Table 3: Fastest Growing Currencies in Absolute Terms
表3：絕對(duì)期限內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)最快的貨幣
RANK
排名
COUNTRY
國(guó)家
CURRENCY CODE
貨幣代碼
Y-O-Y INCREASE IN M0年M0增長(zhǎng)率
EXCHANGE RATE
(OCT 31, 2008)
兌美元匯率（2008-10-31）
BILLIONS
單位（十億元）
%
US$ BILLIONS
以美元衡量（單位：十億元）
1
EU
歐盟
EUR
81.20
13.2%
107.59
1.324990
2
China
中國(guó)
CNY
298.22
10.5%
43.61
0.146224
3
US
美國(guó)
USD
34.20
4.50%
34.20
1.000000
4
Russia
俄羅斯
RUB
683.30
21.2%
25.79
0.037738
5
India
印度
INR
1,050.63
20.8%
21.66
0.020617
6
Poland
波蘭
PLN
30.29
30.9%
11.22
0.370290
7
Japan
日本
JPY
811.60
1.13%
8.11
0.009995
8
Brazil
巴西
BRL
16.48
25.1%
7.57
0.459330
9
Ukraine
烏克蘭
UAH
47.28
47.8%
7.16
0.151403
10
Indonesia
印度尼西亞
IDR
62,839
39.2%
6.31
0.000100
11
UK
英國(guó)
GBP
2.85
4.50%
4.80
1.683800
12
Switzerland
瑞士
CHF
5.43
13.0%
4.75
0.874520
From the comparison of the above two tables, it is quite obvious that the rapidly inflating currencies are relatively small to affect global money supply growth rates. From the second table it is clear that the “big” currencies contribute the bulk of increases in the global money supply. From this particular analysis we can conclude that a sample of the biggest 10-15 currencies in the world can provide a meaningful approximation of the growth rate of global money supply.
從上面兩張表的比較中，我們可以非常明顯地發(fā)現(xiàn)，通貨膨脹較快的貨幣影響全球貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)率較小。第二張表里清晰地顯示出，“大”貨幣貢獻(xiàn)了全球貨幣供應(yīng)的容積增量。從這個(gè)特殊的分析中，我們可以推斷，以全世界最大的10～15種貨幣的供應(yīng)情況為樣本，便能為全球貨幣供應(yīng)量的估算提供一種有意義的參考。
咖啡杯水仙 at 2009-7-04 16:32:50
[i=s] 本帖最后由 咖啡杯水仙 于 2009-7-4 16:39 編輯
Money Supply vs. Gold Supply
貨幣供應(yīng)與黃金供應(yīng)
It is estimated by the WGC that a total of 165,547 tonnes of gold have been mined. This is equivalent to about 5.32 billion ounces. Most of that gold is currently available as supply at some price, possibly much higher than the current market price. Given that the total gold supply is relatively stable and that very little gold is consumed in industrial processes, the annual increase in the supply of gold from current mining is relatively stable -- about 1.5%.
據(jù)世界黃金協(xié)會(huì)估計(jì)，全球已開采黃金（地表存金）大約有16.5547萬(wàn)噸，相當(dāng)于53.2億盎司。大部分黃金作為有效供應(yīng)正在某些價(jià)位等待出售，這些價(jià)位很可能大大高于現(xiàn)在的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格?？偟狞S金供應(yīng)量是相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的，只有少數(shù)黃金工業(yè)中被消耗掉，由地下開采上來(lái)的黃金供應(yīng)量也是相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的，大約為年均1.5%（也就是說，地表存金量年均增加1.5%——譯者）。
Figure 3 below shows the calculation of the value of all gold ever mined. The top left graph in the figure shows the price of gold for the period of 1970-2008. The top right graph in the figure shows the quantity of all gold mined for the same period. Finally, the bottom graph in the figure shows the product of the price with the quantity, which represents the value of all gold ever mined.
下面的圖3顯示了所有黃金價(jià)值的計(jì)算過程。圖3中，左上角的小圖顯示了1970～2008年的金價(jià)變化，右上角的小圖顯示了同一時(shí)期所有開采黃金（地表存金）的數(shù)量。最后，底部小圖顯示了黃金價(jià)格與數(shù)理的乘積變化，即所有黃金的價(jià)值變化情況。
For example, the 10-31-2008 closing spot price for one troy ounce of gold was US$806.62. Multiplied by the corresponding quantity, the total value of all gold ever mined was US$4.3 trillion. This is just slightly more than the $4.03 billion global M0 money supply from Figure 2 above.
例如，在2008年10月31日的黃金價(jià)格為每金制盎司（31.1035克）806.62美元，這個(gè)價(jià)格乘以對(duì)應(yīng)的數(shù)量，黃金總價(jià)則為4.3萬(wàn)億美元。這只是些微高于在上面表2中顯示的4.03萬(wàn)億美元的全球狹義貨幣供應(yīng)量。
Figure 3. Global Value of Gold
黃金價(jià)值.JPG
Figure 4 below shows a historical comparison for the value of mined gold against that of currency in circulation. This chart essentially overlays our previous data on global money supply with the data on the value of gold. It provides the basis for our valuation of gold.
下列表4將歷史的黃金價(jià)值總量與流通中貨幣進(jìn)行了比較。這份行情圖明顯壓倒了我們以前關(guān)于全球貨幣供應(yīng)與黃金價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)的比照。它為我們提供了黃金價(jià)格的基礎(chǔ)。
Figure 4. Global Money Supply vs. Global Value of Gold
Gold Valuation
黃金價(jià)格
The period from 1945 to 1971 is widely known as the “Bretton Woods” era. The chief aim of the Bretton Woods Agreements was to establish the rules for commercial and financial relations among the world's major industrial states. The policy required that each country maintained the exchange rate of its currency within a fixed value—plus or minus one percent – to the U.S. dollar, which in turn would be convertible to gold at the rate of US$35/oz for foreign governments.
The system collapsed when President Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard on Aug 15, 1971 in response to growing demands from foreign governments to exchange their paper dollars for US Treasury gold. At that time there was some speculation by professional economists and Wall Street that the price of gold would collapse as the US dollar ‘would no longer hold it up’. In reality, just the opposite occurred – not only did gold not collapse, but instead it began a multi-year bull market, reaching an intraday peak of US$873 a troy pounce on January 21, 1980.
在1945～1971年這段時(shí)間里，被廣泛地稱作“布雷頓森林體系”時(shí)代。布雷頓森林協(xié)議的主要目標(biāo)是建立與世界上主要工業(yè)國(guó)家間通用的商業(yè)和金融規(guī)則。這一政策，要求每個(gè)國(guó)家都應(yīng)在一種混合的價(jià)值體系內(nèi)——上下百分之一的幅度里，對(duì)美元保持本幣匯率的穩(wěn)定，而美元以35美元一盎司的價(jià)格向外國(guó)政府敞開黃金兌換窗口。這一體系在1971年8月15日崩潰，其時(shí)，尼克松總統(tǒng)關(guān)閉了黃金窗口以回應(yīng)外國(guó)政府日益增長(zhǎng)的以美元換黃金的要求。從那時(shí)起，就有專業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和華爾街人士以“美元不再堅(jiān)挺，黃金也將崩潰”為由從事一些黃金的投機(jī)買賣活動(dòng)。事實(shí)上，只有相反的情況發(fā)生了，黃金價(jià)格不但沒有崩潰，反而開始了一輪持續(xù)多年的牛市，在1980年1月21日達(dá)到了873美元一金制盎司的巔峰價(jià)格。
Our analysis essentially begins approximately with the collapse of Bretton Woods. The first major observation is that during the 1970s, gold advanced much farther than money supply. There are two fundamentally different explanations for this phenomenon. The first explanation, espoused by neoclassical economists, is that gold is inherently more volatile and more unstable than paper currencies. The other explanation, espoused by Austrian economists, is that gold is inherently stable and that paper currencies are inherently unstable, so that the high volatility of gold reflects the discounted value of expected future inflation. In other words, Austrians contend that the monetary policy associated with paper currencies is inherently unstable, and this instability of paper currencies is magnified when discounted to the current price of gold; this discounting mechanism generates the apparent excessive volatility of gold.
我們的分析本來(lái)開始于布雷頓森林體系崩潰大約崩潰的時(shí)候。第一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)性的觀察期約在1970年代中（原文如此——譯者），黃金價(jià)格推進(jìn)得大大快于貨幣的供應(yīng)。關(guān)于這種現(xiàn)象，有兩種截然不同的解釋。第一種解為某些新古典主義的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們所信奉，他們認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)值是本來(lái)就比紙幣價(jià)值更具波動(dòng)性，更加不穩(wěn)定。另一種解釋認(rèn)為，黃金天生就比紙幣價(jià)值穩(wěn)固，而在這方面紙幣天生不如黃金。因此黃金的高波動(dòng)性反映的是對(duì)未來(lái)通貨膨脹的預(yù)期。換言之，奧地利學(xué)派爭(zhēng)辯道，貨幣政策和與之相聯(lián)系的紙幣是天然不穩(wěn)固的，而且這種紙幣價(jià)值的不穩(wěn)定性在黃金現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格面前的貼現(xiàn)時(shí)被放大了；這種貼現(xiàn)機(jī)理導(dǎo)致了黃金價(jià)格過度的波動(dòng)性。
The second fundamental observation is that during the 1970s, gold rose at significantly faster rates than money supply. Neoclassicals explain this with the inherently volatile nature of gold. However, volatility simply cannot explain this 10-year trend. Volatility relates to variability in prices around the trend, not to the direction of the trend. Neoclassical economists have no meaningful explanation here, except to resort to volatility of gold and irrational behaviour of gold “investors”. On the other hand, the explanation by Austrians is straightforward and logical, as inflation accelerated throughout the 1970s, the discounting mechanism of the gold market resulted in accelerating price of gold from the rising inflationary expectations.
第二個(gè)基礎(chǔ)性觀察期是在1970年代中，黃金價(jià)格的提升速度顯著快于貨幣供應(yīng)量。新古典主義者們將這種情況解釋為金價(jià)天生的波動(dòng)性。然而，波動(dòng)性并不能簡(jiǎn)單地解釋這10年的趨勢(shì)。波動(dòng)性與黃金價(jià)格的易變性在這一趨勢(shì)周圍聯(lián)系，而非與這一趨勢(shì)的方向相聯(lián)系。在這方面，新古典主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家并無(wú)有意義的結(jié)論，除了訴諸于黃金價(jià)格的波動(dòng)性和黃金“投資者”的非理性行為。而另一方面，奧地利學(xué)派的解釋則是簡(jiǎn)單明了并富于邏輯性的：由于通貨膨脹在1970年代不斷累積，因此黃金市場(chǎng)的貼現(xiàn)機(jī)理導(dǎo)致了金價(jià)在不斷抬升的通脹預(yù)期里疊創(chuàng)新高。
The third fundamental observation is that there is a possibility for a long-term divergence between the value/price of gold and global money supply. This divergence is obvious for the period of 1980-2000. The neoclassical school has not offered a satisfactory explanation of this phenomenon except to point out disparagingly that gold is a “barbarous relic”, “irrelevant” or “dead”. The Austrian explanation, however, is again quite straightforward: the period was generally characterized by disinflation, so the discounting mechanism produced lower gold prices due to the falling inflationary expectations that more than offset increases in money supply.
第三個(gè)基礎(chǔ)性觀察期是在一個(gè)黃金價(jià)格和全球貨幣供應(yīng)量可能出現(xiàn)了長(zhǎng)期背離的時(shí)侯。這一背離顯然是1980～2000年間。新古典主義學(xué)院派們并未就此現(xiàn)象提出令人滿意的解釋，除了以輕蔑的態(tài)度指出黃金是一種“野蠻的遺跡”、“過時(shí)的”或者“死亡的”。然而，奧地利學(xué)派則又一次非常直截了當(dāng)?shù)刂赋觯@一時(shí)期總體上被通貨緊縮所籠罩，因此貼現(xiàn)機(jī)理在日漸下落的通貨膨脹預(yù)期下造成了日益低落的金價(jià)，這一機(jī)理的影響，抵消了日益增長(zhǎng)的貨幣供應(yīng)。
Conclusion
結(jié)論
This analysis leads us to speculate that while divergences caused by inflationary expectations can last for a very long time, even decades, the long-term price of gold is driven by global money supply.
這一分析，引起我們的深思：由通脹預(yù)期引發(fā)的背離可以持續(xù)相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，甚至數(shù)十年之久，然而，黃金的長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格仍然由全球貨幣供應(yīng)量所控制。
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資源：
As an interesting aside, one may note that the present US debt of US$10.5 trillion easily exceeds the value of ALL circulating currencies in the world PLUS the value of all gold ever mined! A naive person may wonder just exactly how the American government ever intends to pay this debt off...
作為一首有趣的插曲，我們可能都會(huì)注意到美國(guó)現(xiàn)有的債務(wù)額為10.5萬(wàn)億美元，它們非常輕易就超越了全世界所有已開采的黃金價(jià)值總和。一個(gè)幼稚的人可能想確切地知道美國(guó)政府會(huì)打算如何償清這些債務(wù)。
It was illegal for Americans to own gold for investment purposes since President Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 on April 5, 1933. It wasn’t until Dec 31, 1974 when Americans could own once again own gold coins, bars and certificates.
在1933年8月5日美國(guó)總統(tǒng)羅斯福簽署了第6102號(hào)總統(tǒng)令后，美國(guó)人以投資為目的去擁有黃金就成了非法行為，直到1974年12月31日，美國(guó)人才得以重新?lián)碛薪饚拧⒔饤l和證書。
In nominal terms, gold did not surpass this level until Jan 8, 2008 – nearly some 28 years later.
在名義價(jià)格上，黃金并沒有超過前期高點(diǎn)（850美元/盎司）直到2008年1月8日，差不多28年以后。
